In the 1993 movie "Groundhog Day," Bill Murray plays Phil Connors, a selfish weatherman who visits a small Pennsylvania town to cover their February 2nd traditions. He awakens a number of times throughout the film to find that he is stuck on that day, so he relives it in a variety of ways.

As the film continues, the egotistical Phil is unable to move past this day until he learns the meaning and value of selfless love with his boss, Rita (Andie McDowell). Once this occurs, he moves on to February 3rd and, presumably, the rest of his life. It seems that the many "do-overs" were a way for some unseen power to make sure that Phil got his life right.

In many ways, the New York Yankees are the Phil Connors of Major League Baseball this year. They have a collection of high-priced talent and an organization filled with egos, ranging from the owner to the bat boys. They’ve endured numerous starts and stops and have tried to win in a variety of ways. (Does anyone remember the ridiculous "pow-wow" between the New York and Tampa factions that was held in June?) And with one week left to play, it looks like they have finally gotten it right.

Meanwhile, just 11 months after their miraculous comeback in the ALCS and their subsequent World Series title, the Boston Red Sox and their fans are back in familiar territory -- staring at the derrieres of the Yankees in the standings and wondering what went wrong. It has gone so poorly for the Red Sox that I recently heard one fan claim that "all the Sox had to do was make the playoffs and that would be enough -- whatever happened from there was gravy."

What? This team won the World Series last season! That victory was supposed to break the "Curse of the Bambino." And it isn’t like Boston is Cleveland, a team that many thought were at least another year away from playoff contention.

The Red Sox nation began the year dreaming of a repeat. The truth is that Red Sox fans now know, despite the aberration of last season’s heroics, that the natural order of things in the AL East was destined to be reestablished.

Now that they have taken over the AL East division lead, the Yankees are in the proverbial driver’s seat to get to the playoffs. The wild card team in the American League looks as though it will come from the Central, meaning that only one team from the East is likely to appear in the postseason. Sorry, Red Sox fans, but the Yankees will make this another October of sorrow and misery for you. At least you have the Patriots.

There are a number of factors which support this argument. For starters, look at the two teams’ starting rotations. Both have been hampered with injuries and ineffectiveness over the course of the season, but the Yankees have found better medicine to heal these wounds.

Shawn Chacon and Aaron Small are a combined 14-3 this season. Both pitchers have ERAs below 3.60 and WHIPs (Walks and Hits per Innings Pitched) just over 1. Chien-Ming Wang, brought up in late April from AAA Columbus to replace injured pitchers Jaret Wright and Carl Pavano, is 7-4 on the year. If Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina can produce in the top two spots in the Yankee rotation, and Chacon, Small and Wang continue to produce, the Yankees will have a solid, if not formidable, set of pitchers to throw at teams this week and in October.

Boston’s rotation, on the other hand, has had fewer holes to fill during the year, but has not been much more effective than the Yanks. Inconsistency has been this staff’s trademark after they let Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe walk during the off-season. Tim Wakefield leads the team in wins and innings pitched, which doesn’t bode well for a team trying to make a postseason run.

Curt Schilling’s injury hurt this staff right from the get-go this season. After a rocky rehab stint in the bullpen, he returned to the rotation on August 25th. However, since his return, Schilling has been erratic at best. In four of his six starts, he has given up four or more runs, and the Sox are 1-3 in those games. Schilling has to win his final two starts if the Red Sox want to make a postseason run.

Relief pitching is another area that should help carry the Yankees into the postseason. It is no secret that both teams have bullpen issues, especially with long relief, but the Yankees have the edge with Mariano Rivera. Rivera is the best postseason closer in the game’s history and, at this point, every game is virtually playoff game for these two teams. The Yankees can turn any eighth-inning lead over to Rivera and feel secure that he will slam the door shut.

Keith Foulke was that guy for Boston last year, but this year he was shaky at best. An injury has shut him down for the rest of the season, so now the Sox are relying on Mike Timlin to be "the man." although Timlin is an experienced journeyman, he is no Rivera.

Both teams can hit and score runs in bunches, and they both have veterans who hit in the clutch. David Ortiz is, perhaps, the game’s best late-inning hitter. Manny Ramirez, Jason Varitek and Johnny Damon (if he is healthy) are big-time players who have come through in big spots.

However, the Yankees are just as stacked -- Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Jason Giambi, Jorge Posada, etc. The Yankees are also led by "Mr. Clutch" Derek Jeter, who has made big play after big play in October over the last nine years.

In terms of their statistics, the teams have strikingly similar team batting averages, home run totals, RBI totals, etc. According to these statistics, Boston may have a slight advantage if the season comes down to slugging. However, teams that rely solely on scoring lots of runs often struggle come playoff time.

Of these two teams, the Yankees are playing better baseball when it counts. They are on a hot streak, winning 10 of their last 11 games and 11 of the last 13. During that stretch, they are winning in close games and blowouts, pitchers’ duels and offensive shootouts, proving that they can win any way necessary.

In addition, both teams have games remaining with Toronto and Baltimore before their three-game showdown in Fenway Park next weekend. The Yankees have a better combined record (19-11) against both teams this season than Boston does (13-17).

If this trend holds up, the Yankees should increase their lead over Boston before their series. If that occurs, and the Yankees were to win 1 of the 3 games in Fenway, they would win the division.

The final point that needs to be made is that history is on the Yankees’ side. Although their collapse last year was shameful, it doesn’t change the fact that the Yankees have broken Red Sox fans’ hearts for 86 years. Twenty-six World Championships buy a team a measure of forgiveness for one playoff collapse.

The Yankees are a team loaded with veterans; they will not lack confidence because last season’s playoffs. If these teams were the same as last year’s teams, the Yankees would still be favored to be playoff bound -- they were up 3-0 in the ALCS before they let it slip away (or, rather, Boston earned it through their diligence).

The truth is that these aren’t the same two teams. The Yankees, inconsistent as they may have been all year, have found their stride, while the Red Sox are stumbling. When the time has come in this rivalry for one team to walk the walk, it has been the Yankees who have done so time and time again.

Wake up, Phil Connors -- it is about to be February (October) 3rd.