Like many of you, I spend a great deal of time analyzing statistics, phoning friends and watching sports shows on cable, just to get that extra win in the office pool. How often does it work? Almost never. In fact, my office pool's entry came in first place, among men. Four women who cannot associate a team's nickname with the city they represent all finished ahead of me.

At the risk of sounding like Art Bell, follow me for a few minutes. You run a casino or 12 in Las Vegas. You are "connected" to the right people, and money changes hands for a little insider info. You take this information and phone your friend, who happens to produce a cable sports show. For a small fee (pick a number that you can hide from the IRS), you proceed to provide a "tip" on an upcoming game. 

Armed with the information sold, your friend can make a more informed bet than you and I are privy. Now that your friend at the studio has his Christmas club money set aside, he proceeds to give the writers of the show the wrong information, who includes it into their script, to look brilliant.

Who wins? The casino makes a fortune, because the viewing audience is laying money on the wrong team, the television show producer makes out like a bandit, and you lose. Of course, these things never happen, right?

For those of you that don't wish to think like that, let's take the high road instead. Take a bunch of middle aged men, whose names aren't quite household names, though you remember their three years of glory when they played in the NFL. These men are considered NFL authorities. Let's see how they did this past Wild Card weekend.

There are three experts on the show. Anyone who follows the NFL on cable knows the show to which I am referring. The first expert proclaims the New England Patriots are the team to beat, as they have the experience, coaching and Tom Brady. Since New England launches their first post season game at home, the game is a "lock." Final score: Baltimore 33, New England 14.

Expert number two boasts the most regular season wins of anyone on the panel. He claims the Green Bay Packers are the hottest team going. "Aaron Rodgers (the Packers quarterback) does not have a weakness." The Packers, winner of seven of their last eight are a "shoe in." Final score in overtime: Arizona 51, Green Bay 45.

The last expert picked the Cincinnati Bengals to beat the Jets. "A rookie quarterback almost never wins his first playoff game on the road." He continues, "The Bengals Carson Palmer is a more experienced player, with better pocket presence". Final score: New York 24, Cincinnati 14.

If you want to avoid these pitfalls, simply don't believe anything you read or watch on TV. Whether or not you subscribe to the theory that these games are fixed doesn't matter in the long run. Losing hard earned money based on what these "experts" have to say is a sure fire way to the poorhouse. If you don't mind giving a little money away here and there, donate to your favorite charity instead. At least that way, someone will actually win, regardless of how well your team performs.