Four years ago I wrote an article called "How to win your hockey pool" and it became tremendously popular. This is the 2009 edition.

With every player you consider drafting and every pick you make, you always want to be looking for upside. The key to winning your hockey pool is finding the players that will exceed their point totals of last year. Anybody can look at last year's scoring stats and pick in that order; it is the "poolie" that identifies the breakout and bounce back players that ends up in the money.

A truth I learned early on in my hockey-pool career was that if a player is ever going to have a breakout season, it would almost always be in his third or fourth year. This is not true 100% of the time, but this is a consistent enough phenomenon that I would bank my hockey pool team on it.

I fondly remember picking Keith Tkachuk in the 1993-94 draft. It was Tkachuk's third NHL season and he exploded from 51 points the season prior to 81 in '93-'94. Scan NHL rosters for skilled players entering year three or year four of their careers and pick them in your later rounds. When so many GMs are simply expecting last year to replicate itself, you will be setting yourself up for many "how did you know he was going to have a great season?" type of comments.

Another strategy that has served me very well is – never pick a rookie in the early rounds of a draft. Yes, some rookies have great years and put up big numbers, but the vast majority of rookies do not. For every Teemu Selanne gold mine you hit (132 points as a rookie in '92-'93), there are many Joe Thornton disasters (7 points in 55 games as a rookie in 1997-98). I would avoid rookies early in almost all circumstances.

This season, we do have a special rookie available. Although he is not entering the NHL with the fanfare of Sidney Crosby, John Tavares appears to be a player destined to be a star. That being said, I still would not pick Johnny T earlier than the 5th round in a deep draft and the 8th round in a smaller pool. The downside of picking an unproven commodity too early and bypassing an established contributor is too great of a risk.

Tavares will go early in almost every draft. Stay strong and resist the temptation to be the one that makes that mistake. In a couple of years, Tavares could be a sure first-rounder every season, just not this season.

In a straight points pool, always have a copy of last year's top 300 scorers in your hands. Live with it and keep it handy at all times in the weeks leading up to your draft. Any time you hear an injury update, a contract holdout or somebody lighting it up during the preseason, jot it down by their name on your list. Information is power in a hockey pool so make sure you document everything that would impact your draft strategy. 

Using your top 300 scorers list, go down the entire list and highlight the players you believe will make the greatest improvement over last season. Typically, the players that will explode to new levels are the young guns in their third or fourth season, the top-flight players that were injured last year and players who are in brand-new positive situations.

When you get to the draft table, be strategic in your picks. If you have identified a player that is about to break out, don't just pick him early. Read the crowd and save him to pick a round or two earlier than your competition would have selected him. This way you capture a player with upside and don't overpay to get him – that is the key to winning your pool.

When a sniper goes from a very defensive team to one that plays a more wide-open style, that is who you are looking to get. A good example would be when John LeClair went from the stifling defensive system of Montreal early in the 1994-95 season to the more offensive Philadelphia Flyers. LeClair cracked the top 10 in scoring his first year in Philadelphia – something he never even came close to in Montreal.

In Edmonton, a situation like this may just be developing with the departure of coach Craig MacTavish. MacT was known for preferring grinders to offensively focused players, and that may have held back the Sam Gagners and Andrew Coglianos of the world. In fact, this might be the perfect storm for players like Gagner and Cogliano, both talented, entering their third seasons and now under a more offensive regime.

Another thing to look for is a good player that has been stuck in a bad situation and has moved to something better. A possibility of significant upside exists with Chris Kunitz, formerly of Anaheim now expected to garner significant minutes with superstars Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in Pittsburgh.

Another key indicator is the style of game a player has. I have never been a big fan of the "power forward" for several reasons. The power game leads to more injuries than many other styles of play. Standing in front of the net taking a beating from Chris Pronger or Zdeno Chara all season long does take a toll.

Power forwards also tend to spend a lot of time in the penalty box. By definition the role requires that you battle and those battles often lead to fights. When one of your top picks spends 150 minutes per year in the penalty box, it is difficult for him to score. I would lean more towards finesse-type players.

Finesse-type players who can create their own offense are much better picks than those who cannot. This seems quite obvious but it is not always obvious what players are more creative than others. Look for strong skaters that can carry a team. Determination and desire to win are also traits that these types of players possess.

Players that can create their own offense, no matter who they have on their line are guys like the obvious Crosby, Malkin Ovechkin and others like Thornton, Jarome Iginla and Ilya Kovalchuk.

Passion for the game is another hallmark of a great scorer. Some players tend to have a good season and follow it up with a stinker then they might have another good one then an average one. Some of those players seem to lack the passion and it is reflected in their point totals.

Depending on when your pool has its draft, pay attention to pre-season scoring statistics. Do not make pre-season scoring your sole reason for picking a player; many times people have been burned by a hot prospect who scored a lot of points in the exhibition games. Preseason scoring is a supplement to research that you have already done. If you are unsure about a player or you need another piece of evidence to tip the scales either way, pre-season performance can be the information that you are looking for.

If your pool is one that picks goalies, be very careful. There is no goalie stat in existence that is solely the result of the goaltender's efforts. What I mean is that the team in front of the goalie is responsible for a large percentage of the overall defensive effort. If a goaltender has a great defense in front of him, his numbers will make him look better than he is. If a goaltender has a poor defense in front of him, his numbers will make him look worse than he really is.

I always think of Dwayne Roloson when I speak about goaltending stats. In the 2003-04 season, Roloson had the best save percentage in the NHL with a .933, yet he didn't receive any serious consideration for the Vezina trophy. Why is that? Because the voters realized that the Minnesota Wild played such a stifling defensive system and that inflated Roloson's statistics. Roloson faced far fewer quality shots each night than did a goaltender like Roberto Luongo with the Panthers.

The point of this is: pick a goalie that plays behind a very strong defense. If an excellent goalie gets traded to a lousy defensive team, avoid him. You would be much better off picking a lesser goalie that is in the nets on a great defensive team.

If your pool gives points based on the number of wins a goalie achieves, again, go with a goalie on a very strong team. No goalie is capable of winning a game alone. Goaltending statistics are very misleading because none of them are achieved by the goaltender alone. When picking a goalie, consider the team as much as the individual.

So use these tips to improve your team in this year's draft. As you can see, some of the names change but the concepts stay the same. Look for the breakout players, look for the upside with every single pick. You should almost never find yourself selecting a 35-year-old player in your pool, there is no place to go but down.