Man United, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool, dubbed the top four for the past few years, have done little to suggest that they will relinquish their champions league spots. Despite the best efforts of the fast-improving sides below them, it is likely that their seemingly impervious home form will prove too much for the chasing pack to contend with.

Between them, they have lost just four home matches in three seasons against opposition outside their elite circle (two of these were against a relegation battling, Carlos Tevez-inspired West Ham in the run up last year).

The title race began arguably as the most open in years. As the season has unfolded the “top four” has, however, split into two sets of two.

Champions Man United were worthy winners last year and the additions of holding midfielder Owen Hargreaves and youthful Nani, whose full name is Luis Carlos Almedia Da Cunha, and Anderson Luís de Abreu Oliveira have only strengthened their impressive squad. Carlos Tevez and Wayne Rooney's partnership has blossomed, as has that of Nemanja Vidic and Rio Ferdinand as the centre of the enviable backline.

Cristiano Ronaldo's transformation from wasteful showboating to the third placed world player of the year is all but complete. His arsenal includes freekicks of David Beckham standard, flicks reminiscent of Eric Cantona and pace and guile worthy of Ryan Giggs are his best (he is even potent with his head).

Anderson has proved a huge hit in the centre of the park, while Nani has provided moments of magic to suggest comparisons with his Portuguese team mate may be justified one day. United are favourites to retain their title but their London rivals will push them all the way.

The young gunners, strangely inspired after the loss of Thierry Henry, their free-scoring talisman, have confounded expectations and proved they have the quality and mettle to challenge for the title despite the relative inexperience of their squad.

Cesc Fabregas and Mathieu Flamini have, in particular, grown in statue over the past 12 months, while William Gallas has led from the back, contributing crucial goals against Man United and Chelsea. With the lethal finishing of Robin Van Persie still to return from his bout of injuries and more to come from speedster Theo Walcott, Arsenal supporters will hope Arsene Wenger can steer them beyond their recent stumbles and back to the top in the new year.

Despite only being half way through the season, Chelsea and Liverpool have struggled to display the kind of form necessary to challenge for the title. Chelsea's form has vastly improved since the change of management but have struggled against the top sides with losses to Man United, Arsenal and Villa. Jose Mourinho's tactical mind and ability make inspired substitutions at the right time has been missed and Chelsea have lost their air of invincibility.

With John Terry and Frank Lampard out injured and a number of crucial players including much-relied on Didier Drogba, departing for the African Nations Cup in January, their squad may be stretched too far. After boxing day's thrilling match, the blues ironically may be relying Michael Ballack and Andriy Shevchenko to inspire their front line and will desperately hope Petr Cech has filled his quota of blunders for the season.

Rafa Benitez's ultimate legacy at Liverpool, despite the miraculous comeback in Istanbul to crown them European Champions two years ago, will not be set in stone unless he wins that elusive league title. Home grown favourite Jamie Carragher leads fine defensive outfit whilst captain Steven Gerrard is a inspirational match winner, as he showed once again against Derby.

In Fernando Torres, Liverpool have a genuinely world class striker with bags of pace, an eye for goal and the ability and dare to beat his man. Benitez's meddlesome rotation system may prove his undoing if he doesn't ensure Torres is able to strike fear into defenders every week; his strike partners, whilst competent, do not have top defenders constantly looking over their shoulders.

Breaking into the top four?

A chasing pack of four or five clubs will push for the fourth champions league spot, but will likely settle for the much coveted UEFA Cup spots. Man City dropped their first points at home on Thursday after Roque Santa Cruz continued his fine run of form and twice pegged City back to claim a draw for Blackburn. Despite this, only of the top two can boast such a home record and if Sven-Göran Eriksson can get them playing half as well away, then they will surely be in the top six come May. His much publicised but little known signings over the summer have proved a huge success.

Elano Blumer and Martin Petrov, in particular, have provided creative spark and goal-scoring prowess. Challenging them will be Harry Rednapp's athletic, counter-attacking Portsmouth who have proved defensively astute. Despite a creditable away record, they have failed to score in six of the last seven home league games (the exception being the game of the season, 7-4 home win, against Reading). Like Chelsea though, they are losing vital players to the African Nations Cup in January.

Perhaps one of the two strongest squads in this group are Everton. David Moyes's Merseyside team are tough to beat, solid at the back and are the best bet to challenge for fourth. Yakubu Aiyegbeni has now settled in and resumed his goal-scoring spree (no one has scored more premiership goals over the past three seasons). Lee Carsley and Thomas Gravesen (newly returned to Goodison Park after spells at Celtic and Real Madrid) play the holding roles for the imaginative Mikel Arteta to dictate play and the free-scoring Tim Cahill to get forward. With options up front and quality all-around the park, Everton's young side should be pressing the break the top four.

The other side I expect to push up the table are Aston Villa. Martin O'Neill's men are filled with vitality and self-belief, much like their manager. No one can blame O'Neill for turning down the chance at the England job when he gets to work day in day out with some of the country's finest youngsters. Gabriel Agbonlahor and Ashley Young have terrorised defences this year with their never give up attitude and zest for the game. Up with them the experienced John Carew acts as a perfect target man, as he proved against Chelsea. Martin Laursen's knack of getting goals has proved invaluable, whilst Gareth Barry continues to put in seamless performances every weekend.

Blackburn's recent poor form has marred their positive start. Mark Hughes will have to hope that David Bentley and Roque Santa Cruz continue to their form and that Benni McCarthy regains confidence. His biggest problems however lie at the back with only one clean sheet in 14 games.

Juande Ramos's new look Spurs should hope to improve on their mere 21 points to date and will likely look to strengthen their squad during the January transfer window. Their wealth of options up front as well as the return of key defensive players such as Ledley King should help them recover from the dire start that saw Martin Jol lose his job amongst expectations of a “top 4” season

With seven managers losing jobs already this season, Sam Allardyce will hope his "underperforming" players focus their new year's resolution thoughts on lifting Newcastle from their mid-table plight. The fanatical Toon Army supporters demand attractive, attacking football as a first and winning as a second. The absence of both, despite the impressive-on-paper attacking options Big Sam has at his disposable, is causing significant unrest at Newcastle.

The relegation dogfight – who will survive the drop?

Steve Coppell's Reading are underweight on talent but overweight on heart and desire, epitomised by battling Steven Hunt. Kevin Doyle and Dave Kitson continue to provide the goals, despite suggestions they are Championship strikers, as Reading lead the pack of relegation strugglers. Their ceaseless energy and clever management should see them finish safe.

Birmingham, Bolton and Middlesbrough are the other relegation contenders I expect to steer clear of the drop. Birmingham have collected crucial results against the team around them (except for the recent away loss to Bolton) and Alex McLeish will look to shore up his defence in the transfer window. My belief that Bolton will survive is built solely on faith in the ability of Nicolas Anelka, Djibril Cissé and Kevin Davies provides the goals that so-often are lacking in sides that fail to stay up.

Middlesbrough have lacked that very quality with just seventeen goals this season (only Derby have scored fewer). Tuncay Sanli's recent form bodes well for them but the likes of Mido and Jérémie Aliadiere have failed to replace the hole left by Yakubu's departure. Gareth Southgate will need to improve on merely two home wins, but their win over unbeaten Arsenal gives them an edge over the sides below them.

Derby's brief, sobering return to the top flight has unfortunately left them facing an avoidable reality – they simply aren't good enough to stay up. One win and nine goals has left new manager Paul Jewell already speaking ominously of "building for the future." Strengthening in January will likely be with an eye on next year. It was with great sadness to most neutrals that honest-Scot Billy Davies was ousted from his job after last season's tremendous achievement.

In stark contrast, Sunderland will fight for every inch from now until they host Arsenal in their final game under the stewardship of Roy Keane. If Kenwyne Jones can find the goals and his troops can muster enough energy, Keane may yet be able to keep them up. Steve Bruce's Wigan have propelled themselves out of the bottom three with seven points in three games. If Marcus Bent, and soon-to-return Emile Heskey, can put themselves about effectively, the escape may continue. Fulham's seven year spell in the premiership will once again be put to the test.

Last season, the January window provided quality enough to save them, albeit on the last day, but a lack of real attacking threat and some bad luck with late goals early in the season could see the London club succumb to relegation.