Look for many lackluster games and one still perfect team.
Last week’s 10-6 forecast was ugly. I warned that despite a Week 16 schedule of winning teams versus teams at .500 or below, there were bound to be some surprises – and indeed there were. Unfortunately, I missed most of them. The fans, however, suffered the most from the upsets. Ten of the 12 playoff seeds are already wrapped up, leaving only a couple of “must watch” games.
Of course, the whole country will be watching to see if the Patriots can close out their regular season by winning every game, rising to the top of the NFL mountain, as one of only two franchises to finish a regular season undefeated. New England also played two more games.
Here are my final thoughts heading into the last regular season weekend.
The Good.
* New England … well you finally made it so you have to finish this phase off.
* Jacksonville … the team few want to face in the postseason.
* Washington … what a gutsy winning streak after losing the week following Sean Taylor’s death.
* New York Giants … you pulled off a big come-from-behind road win to secure your playoff position.
* Philadelphia, Chicago, and Cincinnati …you showed your pride by knocking off playoff and potential playoff teams.
* The league office, NFL Network, CBS and NBC… hats off for reaching agreement to allow the “regular networks” to simulcast the game.
The Weather … outdoors, in the cold, wind, and snow … you have to love December and January football!
The Bad.
*Minnesota … you had playoff destiny in your hands and let it slip through … what a letdown.
* Cleveland … ditto.
* New Orleans … you were at the top of many, including this forecaster’s ranking as the team to beat in the NFC.
* Buffalo … sorry, but blowing a 14-point home field lead on the day you welcomed back tight end Kevin Everett was not good.
* Green Bay … you had a chance to gain home field advantage throughout the playoffs, especially with the Cowboys banged up … but you could not handle the reclawed Bears and the elements.
* Philadelphia, Chicago, Cincinnati, and Washington … thanks to your upsets there are only two critical playoff games instead of a half dozen.
The Ugly.
* Baltimore … I never thought this team would give up.
* The Weather … when Mother Nature really raises her dander it can have a negative effect on the level of play.
New England (15-0) at New York Giants (10-5) (Saturday Night Special). Fans could not ask for more than to have this game available in prime time on Saturday. Whether you approve or disapprove of the Patriots, their head coach, their tactics, or their domination, everyone wants to see if New England can make history by finishing off an unblemished regular season. While I have no doubt the Giants will play hard to win early, I would expect the starters will start to hit the bench as the game moves on. Too bad the Giants are no longer struggling for their playoff lives. New England 35 – New York 17.
San Francisco (5-10) at Cleveland (9-6). The Browns had their chance to smell the sweet scent of the playoffs but left too many points on the field at Cincinnati. They still have an excellent chance to back in as Tennessee MUST win at Indy to knock Cleveland out. The 49’ers have warmed up in December so should not be taken lightly. The Browns will take care of business and then wait for the Sunday night kickoff in Indianapolis. Cleveland 23 – San Francisco 13.
Detroit (7-8) at Green Bay (12-3). These two NFC North rivals finish the season off in what is now a meaningless game thanks to Green Bay’s loss at Chicago. Detroit would like to finish the season at .500 so they will certainly have more incentive. Unless the weather plays havoc they should get their wish. Detroit 21 – Green Bay 13.
New Orleans (7-8) at Chicago (6-9). The two teams that closed out last year’s NFC Championship game close out their disappointing seasons. Two teams that many believed would meet in a rematch are instead relegated to a so what game that will help determine how low they draft. The Bears displayed some of that fierceness that was missing this year and the Saints should still be demoralized from their playoff ousting home loss. Chicago 23 – New Orleans 14.
Jacksonville (11-4) at Houston (7-8). The Jaguars hit the road before hitting the playoffs to face a Houston team that would love to finish at .500 with a win. I would expect Jacksonville to play hard but I also believe they will begin resting their starters in the second half. That will give the Texans the opportunity to end their solid season with a win. Houston 24 – Jacksonville 17.
Carolina (6-9) at Tampa Bay (9-6). The Buccaneers, who began resting starters last week at San Francisco, play host to their NFC South rival in a game they will probably pull their backups. I am not completely confident the Panthers have the firepower to pull out the win, but I just do not see how the Bucs will be up for this game. Carolina 19 – Tampa Bay 13.
Buffalo (7-8) at Philadelphia (7-8). Two teams that had their share of excitement, ups, downs, and disappointments, meet in what would have been an appropriate matchup for teams fighting for the postseason. It could have been had a few breaks bounced their way. These two teams tend to leave it all on the field and I hope they play that way Sunday. Philadelphia 22 – Buffalo 17.
Cincinnati (6-9) at Miami (1-14). With all the drama surrounding a possible winless record removed in Week 15 there is no drama surrounding this game. Miami has already locked up the No. 1 position in next spring’s draft and the Bengals never seem to put in a complete performance. Cincinnati 27 – Miami 20.
Seattle (10-5) at Atlanta (3-12). The Seahawks already have sewn up the third seed in the NFC so I would suspect they are not looking forward to this cross country trip. The Falcons bounced back from their Week 14 debacle to put on a competitive show at Arizona before falling in overtime, and I am sure they would like to close out this miserable season on a positive note. My heart says they will but my head says they will not. I am going with my heart. Atlanta 20 – Seattle 14.
Minnesota (8-7) at Denver (6-9). The Vikings saw their playoff door get virtually slammed shut by failing to be ready to play against the Redskins. They now get a chance to take on the league’s third worst rushing defense, but I would suspect that the Broncos, like the 49’ers and Redskins, can figure out how to tame Minnesota’s top rated rushing offense. They certainly do not have to worry about quarterback Tavarias Jackson, who has proven to be error prone when trying to take advantage of 8- and 9-man fronts. Minnesota must have hope. Minnesota 23 – Denver 16.
Pittsburgh (10-5) at Baltimore (4-11). The Steelers take on the Ravens in what looked like a major matchup 17 weeks ago. Pittsburgh needs a win and a San Diego loss to avoid facing Jacksonville in the playoffs. That is incentive enough. Pittsburgh 27 – Baltimore 10.
Dallas (13-2) at Washington (8-7). The Redskins control their playoff destiny. A win and they are in and it would be sweeter if it came against long time hated rival Dallas, even if the Cowboys are depleted and will rest several starters. The Redskins deserve the playoff spot and it would be nice to see their season come to a joyous conclusion. Washington 27 – Dallas 14.
Kansas City (4-11) at New York Jets (3-12). In one of the weekend’s truly meaningless games the Chiefs and Jets get bumped from their originally scheduled Sunday night time slot to late afternoon. Smart move. New York 19 – Kansas City 18.
San Diego (10-5) at Oakland (4-11). The Chargers will stay on their late season roll and secure the AFC’s No. 3 seed with a win in the East Bay. While I like what I am seeing out of the Chargers with each passing week, they are still not functioning at the level they were last year at this time. That will hurt in the playoffs. San Diego 35 – Oakland 17.
St. Louis (3-12) at Arizona (7-8). The Rams and Cardinals meet with Arizona having a chance to finish at .500 with the win while the Rams can finish with a chance to secure a top five draft pick with the loss. I like the Cardinals. Arizona 28 – St. Louis 19.
Tennessee (9-6) at Indianapolis (13-2). In the final regular season game of the year, the NFL Network and the league office were smart in moving this game to Sunday night. A win and the Titans are in and Cleveland is out no matter what the Browns do against San Francisco. The Colts are expected to join the parade of teams resting starters in the second half so the Titans definitely have a chance. I have to believe Tennessee head coach Jeff Fisher can will this team to victory even if they do not have the better talent. It will be dicey but I like the Titans. Tennessee 26 – Indianapolis 24.
2007 Fearless Forecaster Record
Week 16: 10-6
Season: 158-82
I am a 54-year old sports fanatic currently working as a research analyst and writer for the U.S. government in Germany. I am married and have two sons, both of whom also live and work here in Germany. I became a grandfather for the first time in July 2004, with the birth of a grandson. I was born and raised in Minnesota and am a die-hard Vikings, Twins and Timberwolves fan. My favorite sports are professional and college football, basketball, and baseball, and I am also an avid enthusiast of golf, boxing and tennis. I have lived in Germany for more than 20 years, which has given me a greater appreciation and understanding of more traditional European sports such as soccer, cycling and Formula I racing.