Last week’s 14-2 forecast was one of the season’s best. Outside of Houston’s upset of Tampa Bay and the Giants’ victory over the Eagles, the rest of the results went pretty much according to the script I envisioned. While many of the contests were “no brainers,” such as Buffalo’s demolition of Miami, Jacksonville’s annihilation of Carolina, Green Bay’s destruction of Oakland, Seattle’s domination of Arizona, and Minnesota’s pounding of San Francisco, I needed some last second miracles in Tennessee and Detroit to have the Chargers and Cowboys pull out unlikely wins. I would expect to see more of the same this weekend.
Here are my musings after last week’s action.
The Good.
* New England … the Patriots returned to the form we had grown accustomed to seeing all year and overcame one of the last major hurdles to a perfect season with their impressive second half domination of Pittsburgh.
* Indianapolis … the Colts continue playing the second best football in the league … provided they get the bulk of their injured stars back, this team will be focused on its rematch with New England in the AFC Championship game.
* Cleveland and Buffalo … the Browns and Bills were certainly not on this forecaster’s radar as potential playoff contenders, but here they are, in one of the biggest games of the weekend, with the winner virtually assured of making the postseason.
The Bad.
* Chicago … the Bears continued the recent trend of Super Bowl runner-ups following up a championship season with a dreadful record … who would have bet this team would find themselves in the NFC North cellar with three games to play.
* Detroit … the Lions have turned a season of promise into a season of despair ... I do not know how they did it, but this team looks nothing like the unit that started out the year so strong … how could you completely dominate the Cowboys for 59 minutes only to lose?
* Baltimore … the Ravens look like they have given up on the season, themselves, and their coaching staff after mailing in their performance against the Colts … while they were expected to be challenged to rise to the occasion again following their highly emotional loss to the Patriots in Week 13, they were out of this game before the opening kickoff.
The Ugly.
* Atlanta’s former head coach Bobby Petrino … what were you thinking, quitting on the team this late in the season … you have been skewered in the media, especially by former players, and rightfully so. The Arkansas job would have still been there at the end of the month if they wanted you badly. Instead, you showed no class in telling your owner on Monday you would be the head coach through the season and heading to Arkansas on Tuesday. You then compounded that error in judgment by not having the guts to meet with the players and owner face to face to explain your decision. Instead, you provided them an utterly meaningless letter. Based on your track record with contracts, you better hope you have a long tenure in Fayetteville.
Cincinnati (5-8) at San Francisco (3-10) (Saturday Night). The Bengals take their late season momentum to the West Coast to face the still reeling 49’ers. Cincinnati should have little trouble returning home with another win. There appears to be friction in the 49’ers locker room and San Francisco has lost 10 of its last 11 games and has not won at home since Week 1. This is certainly not the game the league and NFL Network hoped to promote for a prime-time weekend special. Cincinnati 27 – San Francisco 18.
New York Jets (3-10) at New England (13-0). The Jets and Patriots meet for the second time this season and there continues to be a lot of speculation surrounding just how high the Patriots want to run up the score. Personally, I believe a lot of the “turmoil” surrounding the relationship between head coaches Eric Mangini and Bill Belichik is blown out of proportion, but it certainly brings a lot of intrigue to the game. I do not think it will be close but I also do not think it will be a 50-point blow out. The weather will play a factor. New England 35 – New York 13.
Tennessee (7-6) at Kansas City (4-9). The Titans take their fading playoff hopes to the heartland, where they hope they will leave with a win like six of the other seven teams that have visited Arrowhead this year. Except for a brief winning spurt early in the season, the Chiefs have shown they have a lot of work to do with personnel in the off-season. The Titans need the win desperately and I have to believe that alone will be sufficient to secure the victory. Tennessee 24 – Kansas City 16.
Seattle (9-4) at Carolina (5-8). The red-hot Seahawks make another cross-country trip to take on the sad Panthers. These teams looked like playoff contenders heading into the season, but injuries to key players and a continuing bad habit of losing games they could win have doomed Carolina’s season and more than likely head coach John Fox’s job. I know travel takes its toll on teams, but the Seahawks are flying so high right now they would be tough to beat no matter how far they had to go. Seattle 28 – Carolina 12.
Jacksonville (9-4) at Pittsburgh (9-4). One of the weekend’s best matchups and one of only two contests with both teams having winning records has the physical Jaguars facing off against the equally physical Steelers. While Jacksonville got back on the winning track last week with a dominating performance against Carolina, the Steelers were humbled by the Patriots. This is an important game for both teams in the fight for the right to host a Wild Card playoff game, with the winner possibly playing host to the other. The Jaguars have shown me a lot this year by stopping that trend of losing games they should win, and I have never been sold on the Steelers. Playing at home will certainly help, but I suspect Jacksonville learned a lot from watching the tapes of how New England dissected the Steelers defense, which can only help Jacksonville’s game plan. It should be close and it should be exciting, but I like the Jaguars to move one-step closer to playing one game at home in January. Jacksonville 23 – Pittsburgh 20.
Buffalo (7-6) at Cleveland (8-5). I would be a rich man if I would have bet on this contest having a significant impact on the AFC playoff picture. Buffalo prepared for this game with an exhibition win over Miami, while the Browns avoided a “trap” loss at the Meadowlands, a key success for playoff teams. I like what both teams have done this year, a lesson that many other teams should learn from. They never gave up despite terrible starts, and come to play each and every week. If the game were in Buffalo I would probably go with the Bills. However, Cleveland plays host so I have to go with the Browns. Cleveland 20 – Buffalo 17.
Green Bay (11-2) at St. Louis (3-10). The Packers meet the Rams with a chance to move closer to securing the second seed in the NFC playoffs. Quarterback Brett Favre continued to show his grit by extending his amazing start streak less than two weeks after separating his shoulder. The Rams meanwhile, after showing some life with a token winning streak, continue suffering key injuries. The Packers should have all the incentive they need to pull off the win and then sit back the rest of the season and watch other NFC teams beat up on each other while they rest and heal up for their playoff run. Green Bay 27 – St. Louis 17.
Atlanta (3-10) at Tampa Bay (8-5). The Falcons hit the road to take on the division rival Buccaneers following another week of turmoil. They actually may benefit from this setback. It is apparent, based on comments from players, that Petrino could not connect with them, which clearly made it more challenging to prepare for games. They will probably be emotionally charged to play hard for interim head coach Emmitt Thomas, one of the league’s wisest leaders who unfortunately has never had the chance to be in this position despite an impressive pedigree. This is not a “must” win for Tampa Bay, but they certainly would like to take any mystery out of who is going to win the NFC South. It will not be as easy as it would have been if Petrino had not deserted the team, but I have to believe the Buccaneers will hold on for a close win. Tampa Bay 24 – Atlanta 20.
Arizona (6-7) at New Orleans (6-7). The Cardinals face off against the Saints in what has to be considered a “playoff” game for both teams as the loser will see their chances for postseason play disappear. This is definitely not the right time for Arizona to be heading to New Orleans. The Cardinals are banged up at the wide receiver position, which is critical to their success, and the Saints still have the potential to put up some impressive offensive numbers as they have shown several times this season. The Saints have already pulled off a four-game winning streak and they will need another to make the playoffs. They should get the second of four this week. New Orleans 28 – Arizona 18.
Baltimore (4-9) at Miami (0-13). The Ravens head to south Florida to take on the winless Dolphins in what many believed a couple weeks ago was a “winnable” game for Miami. I do not know if that still holds true. The Dolphins have looked terrible the last two weeks and laid an absolute dud the last time they were home. The one thing they have going for them is that the Baltimore team they face appears to have lost most of its desire. Having said that, I suspect they would play similar to how the Jets played in Week 12, and certainly with enough pride to avoid being known as the only team the Dolphins defeated this season. It will probably be close and it will probably be boring, but I just do not see what the Dolphins have that would scare an opponent and make anyone believe that can pull out a win. Baltimore 15 – Miami 10.
Indianapolis (11-2) at Oakland (4-9). The Colts look like they get a breather as they head out to the West Coast to take on the Raiders. Indianapolis continues to impress despite major injuries and warnings of their demise, and I doubt a Tony Dungy-coached team will take the Raiders for granted. They also will probably get a chance to face No. 1 draft pick JaMarcus Russell at some point in the game. It could be ugly but it also could be competitive early. In the end the Colts should roll. Indianapolis 33 – Oakland 17.
Philadelphia (5-8) at Dallas (12-1). The Eagles take their disappointing record on the road to face division rival Dallas and may have a chance to pull off the upset. The Cowboys played lackluster football last week at Detroit until the end of the game, and I do not like what I see in terms of attitude and body language. If the Cowboys think they can just walk through the Eagles they may find themselves in the same place they were late last week. Philadelphia will come in with motivation to beat the playoff-bound Cowboys and should be able to throw caution to the wind. The Eagles are not as bad as their record and I still do not believe the Cowboys are as good as theirs, so this may be more competitive than many believe. In the end, however, Dallas will lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs with the win. Dallas 30 – Philadelphia 23.
Detroit (6-7) at San Diego (8-5). The Lions take their five game losing streak on the road to face the Chargers who are on the other end of the spectrum winning four of their last five. The Lions need the win more than the Chargers, who have pretty much secured the AFC West title, but I can only imagine the adverse affect this losing streak has had on the players psyche. They showed they still have what it takes to win against Dallas last week, but also showed they still have some of the habits we have grown accustomed to under the General Manager Matt Millen. Allowing Dallas to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat was typical of past Detroit teams. The Chargers were extremely lucky to be on the winning end of a similar contest against Tennessee, playing like dogs for three quarters before coming alive to score 14 fourth quarter points and pull out the overtime win. The Chargers have more talent than the Lions and should continue their winning ways. San Diego 27 – Detroit 18.
Washington (6-7) at New York Giants (9-4). The Redskins secured the emotional win they so desperately needed following the Sean Taylor tragedy by pulling out a victory last Thursday against the Bears. They remain in a “must” win playoff mode and will be challenged to pull out a divisional upset against the G-men. New York played better last week in their win at Philadelphia than they did in their Week 13 win at Chicago, but they were more lucky than good. Nevertheless, they find themselves still in the driver’s seat for the fourth seed and Wild Card home game in the playoffs and should have little trouble moving one-step closer this week. At the same time, they will send their long time rival to the sidelines for the postseason. New York 24 – Washington 17.
Chicago (5-8) at Minnesota (7-6). Few fans, including this forecaster, would have expected these two teams to be entering this Monday Night contest with the records they bring. While both teams struggled early, their fortunes went in opposition directions following Minnesota’s upset at Chicago in Week 6 when running back Adrian Peterson ran through, over, and around the Bears’ vaunted defense for more than 200 yards. Now, and I find this so hard to believe, the Vikings hold their playoff destiny in their hands. Six weeks ago I also felt they held their destiny in their hands, but that was for a Top 10 draft choice. If the Vikings win out they are in and they have some of the key ingredients needed to play highly competitive playoff football with their running game, efficient conservative passing game, stout rush defense, and improving pass defense. My main concern about this game is Chicago’s decision to start third string quarterback Kyle Orton. Teams often struggle against quarterbacks for whom there is little to no film available from this season, and this is not the week the Vikings need to struggle. Chicago will want revenge, as well as to hurt the Vikings playoff hopes, and as a division contest it should be close. The Vikings are hot, are playing at home, and have much more to play for. Minnesota 24 – Chicago 14.
2007 Fearless Forecaster Record
Week 14: 14-2
Season: 138-70
