Once again the “game” took a back seat this week with the tragic, senseless shooting death of Washington safety Sean Taylor. One of the league’s rising stars and hardest hitters, Taylor played the game he loved with a “take no prisoners attitude.” While he was involved in several on field incidents that caused many to question his character, he had become a different man after becoming a father according to players and coaches who knew him best. My thoughts and prayers go out to his family, friends, and teammates, and one can only hope that somehow something good will come out of this tragedy.
Turning now to the task at hand, when you incorrectly forecast the first four games on the schedule you know it is not going to be a good week – and a 7-7 forecast is not good. The breaks certainly did not go my way in several contests. St. Louis had a great chance to pull out a late win but looked like the Keystone Cops missing a wide open receiver in the end zone and fumbling the center snap on fourth and goal from the one. The Broncos practically gave a win away by shockingly putting the ball in Chicago’s amazing return man Devin Hester’s able hands – and feet -- and they paid dearly, not once, but twice they watched him turn returns into touchdowns. Arizona continued to prove that old habits die hard as they bumbled their way to a home loss by receiving a delay of game penalty while setting up to kick a chip shot game winning field goal, then missing the actual try, before losing the ball – and the game -- on an end zone fumble in overtime. Finally, Kansas City allowed hated rival Oakland to bring its 17-game losing streak against division rivals to an end, despite the fact their fourth string running back gained more than 150 yards.
Here are some of my thoughts after last week’s action.
The Good.
* New England … this team showed some chinks in the armor and I would suspect their remaining opponents will study the film intently to identify weaknesses to exploit. Nevertheless, their record remains unblemished and they should actually benefit from being pushed by Philadelphia.
* Cleveland … I love the way this gutsy team is playing.
* Jacksonville ... this is your week to prove you are capable of dethroning Indianapolis.
* Oakland and San Francisco … congratulations on ending your long losing streaks!
The Bad.
* The Giants … did you think the game against Minnesota was an exhibition?
* Denver … please help me understand why you decided to give the all-universe Hester a chance to return punts and kickoffs.
* Arizona … I warned you would lose an important game you should and could win.
* Tennessee … this team looks to be in real trouble.
The Ugly.
* Miami … could this be the week? The season’s clock is ticking down … tick, tick, tick, tick.
* Carolina … will you please win one for the home fans?
* Kansas City … what happened to home field advantage … three straight home losses … including to the despised Raiders?
* Baltimore … your offense matches this category … downright ugly … and will you win at least one home this year?
For the second consecutive week there are only two intra-conference games on the schedule. That leaves eight divisional and four conference matchups, making for an extremely competitive schedule that promises several close contests and at least a few surprises. Three teams brought an end to long losing streaks last week. Is this the week that Miami ends the longest losing streak of the season?
San Diego (6-5) at Kansas City (4-7). The Chargers head to Arrowhead where they should walk away with the win just like every other team has recently. For the first time all season, I saw a San Diego team that played with passion and crispness, signaling perhaps that this team is ready to make a strong run to the playoffs. I have just about given up on the Chiefs. I fail to understand how this team could play so well against Indianapolis in Week 11 and follow up with such a poor performance at home against Oakland. While this is one of the divisional rivalries, I do not expect it to be close. San Diego 33 – Kansas City 16.
San Francisco (3-8) at Carolina (4-7). The 49’ers received an early Christmas present from the Cardinals and have a chance to make it two in a row against a Carolina team that still is without a home win. I cannot believe the Panthers will put up a goose-egg in their home win column this season and this contest looks as good as any to send the fans home feeling good. It will not be easy, it will not be pretty, and I hope I am not off target on the home town Panthers for the second consecutive week. Carolina 19 – San Francisco 13.
Atlanta (3-8) at St. Louis (2-9). In another contest matching teams playing out the string, the Falcons and Rams meet in the Gateway City. The Rams should have won defeated a Seattle team that is much better than the Falcons, so I would expect them to have a better result this week. I am a little worried that quarterback Marc Bulger will not play but Frerotte is a capable backup. St. Louis 23 – Atlanta 14.
Jacksonville (8-3) at Indianapolis (9-2). In one of the weekend’s most significant matchups, the red hot and looking good Jaguars have a chance to move into a first place tie atop the AFC South with the Colts. The Jaguars are playing solid football in all phases of the game and I suspect this is one they have had circled on their calendar for a few weeks. Indianapolis had better take advantage of the extra time off they had after playing on Thanksgiving Day to prepare and heal some of their walking wounded. The Colts have not looked sharp since their Week 9 loss to New England and the Jaguars would love to send a strong statement with a win. This could be a barn burner and it will not be easy for the Colts. Nevertheless, I think they made good use of their “long” week to get ready, and will put themselves in great position to secure a first round bye in the playoffs. Indianapolis 24 – Jacksonville 19.
Seattle (7-4) at Philadelphia (5-6). The Seahawks hit the road for the second consecutive week, only this time the trip is cross-country. Seattle was lucky to get out of St. Louis with the win and I doubt they will be as lucky provided Philadelphia plays up to the level they showed in their loss to the Patriots. I do not believe the Seahawks are as good as their record and I do not believe the Eagles are as bad as theirs, so this game should come down to which team is better equipped to overcome adversity. For the Seahawks, it is traveling for the second week in a row; for the Eagles, it is trying to match their performance from last week. I would not bet the house, but I believe the Eagles will be more ready to play than Seattle. Philadelphia 21 – Seattle 17.
New York Jets (2-9) at Miami (0-11). The Jets head to south Florida to take on the winless Dolphins and they would be advised to look at this contest as a playoff game. I have to believe the Dolphins are going to win one of their last five games. Even though they have lost most of their starting skill position players this year, they remain competitive, and within a couple plays of winning as attested by the fact they have lost six games by 3 points or less. The Jets have had a miserable season and being the losing opponent in Miami’s first win may be in the cards. Miami 17 – New York 13.
Buffalo (5-6) at Washington (5-6). This is clearly one of the most challenging games to forecast. The loss of Taylor cannot help but have a devastating affect on the Redskins. Having said that, it can also be used as a motivating tool. The Bills will be ready to play. With their weekly routine so severely disrupted by the tragedy, the Redskins will be hard pressed to carry-out their assignments effectively on every play. They will, however, have a lot of pent up emotion to release, a frequent ingredient for success on the field. While a Washington loss would surprise no one, I think the Redskins will play with a committed determination to win in Taylor’s honor. Washington 21 – Buffalo 13.
Detroit (6-5) at Minnesota (5-6). A few weeks ago this looked like a Detroit win. Now, Minnesota is the team that is suddenly on the rise and the Lions are the team heading south. These teams know each other well so the winner will be the unit that does all those things that win football games better: block, tackle, create turnovers, and score. The Lions are desperate to end a three-game losing streak that is seriously hindering their playoff potential, especially with brutal contests down the road. The Vikings are determined to show they are a dangerous team despite their defensive and offensive shortfalls. I am not comfortable with this forecast but I have to go with the hotter team, especially playing at home. Minnesota 23 – Detroit 17.
Houston (5-6) at Tennessee (6-5). Two teams that have definitely been going in different directions square off in Nashville. It is extremely interesting to see how a season can evolve for some teams. The Texans started off hot, and then went on a losing streak attributed in large part to key injuries. With the injured back, they started winning again and still have an ultra-slim chance at the playoffs. The Titans also started strong, winning several close games to put them near the top of the second echelon. Several of those wins, however, involved some luck, which I warned in Week 9 would eventually run out – and I was correct. Their overall play has been terrible over the past few weeks, and their once secure position in the playoff hunt is extremely precarious. I am not sure if this team can recapture some of the magic they had through the first half of the season, but I have to believe head coach Jeff Fisher can somehow pull them back together. The Texans could easily return home with the win but I have to go with the Titans one more time. Tennessee 25 – Houston 18.
Denver (5-6) at Oakland (3-8). The Broncos should be in battle mode when they meet division rival Oakland. Denver let an important win get away from them in Chicago and they need to put the hammer down on their overmatched rivals quickly and often. Oakland, despite their solid start to the season, is right about where most forecasters predicted they would be at this time of the season. A win this week was not in the cards then and it certainly is not now. Denver 30 – Oakland 13.
Cleveland (7-4) at Arizona (5-6). The Browns continue to roll along piling up wins, but this may not be the week they wanted to head to the desert. The Cardinals should be ready once again to pull off a home upset like they did in Week 10, which should set them up to lose a game they should and could win, probably Week 16 at home against Atlanta. Arizona 23 – Cleveland 20.
New York Giants (7-4) at Chicago (5-6). In one of the weekend’s most important conference matchups, the Giants take their too often disturbing game to the Windy City to take on the still proud Bears. I do not know what quarterback Eli Manning’s problems are when he faces the Vikings, but he and the team need to put that game out of their minds and get on with the task at hand. It must be obvious to Chicago fans that their playoff hopes should have gone “bye bye” last week, especially when you have to rely on two long returns, a blocked punt, and one of the most unbelievable touchdown passes in NFL history to pull out a home win. I would suspect the Bears will be buoyed by their big come from behind win, but I also suspect the New York defense will be ready and Manning will bounce back from last week’s horror show. New York 24 – Chicago 13.
Tampa Bay (7-4) at New Orleans (5-6). Another key divisional matchup has the NFC South leading Buccaneers heading to New Orleans to just about turn out the lights on the Saints. The key to this game will be the health of Tampa quarterback Jeff Garcia who is questionable. If he has sufficiently healed from last week‘s bruises to play at near peak levels, the Bucs should enjoy the trip. If he is still banged up, the Saints will be looking at staying in the playoff hunt. Backup Bruce Gradkowski did not impress last week. The Saints need this game more, but this team has played too poorly too often this season for me to give them the nod. I like the Bucs to pretty much lock up the division if Garcia plays. Tampa Bay 21 – New Orleans 17. If the Bucs have to rely on Gradkowski the Saints will win. New Orleans 24 – Tampa Bay 14.
Cincinnati (4-7) at Pittsburgh (7-3). The Bengals take their dangerous offense on the road with a chance to put a hurting on Pittsburgh’s hopes to secure that first round bye in the playoffs. Everyone was expecting the Steelers to put a whooping on Miami last Monday night, but mother nature and some of the worst field conditions ever played on brought those visions to a screeching halt. Despite the short week, the Steelers should be ready to unleash all that hyped up energy and game time intensity they did not get to release last week while worrying about injuries, turnovers, and not giving up big plays in the slop they endured. Pittsburgh 28 – Cincinnati 17.
New England (11-0) at Baltimore (4-7). The suddenly “beatable” Patriots hope to maintain their perfect record against a Ravens team that is a shell of its one proud self. This team has to be looking at a major overhaul in the post-season, starting with “offensive genius” head coach Brian Billick. The Ravens can no longer count on their once powerful defense to pull out or set up wins for their weak offense, a bad combination if you want to win in this league. The Ravens will be hyped for this Monday night contest no doubt, but I believe they were supposed to be hyped to gain revenge at home on division rivals Cincinnati and Cleveland in Weeks 10 and 11 and feel flat. Anything can happen in the NFL, and it is not out of the realm that the Ravens could deal the Patriots their first loss. I just cannot see how this team can stay with New England. I am not sure it will be a blow-out, but the Patriots should win with relative ease. New England 38 – Baltimore 13.
2007 Fearless Forecaster Record
Week 12: 7-7
Season: 111-63
