My pre-season pick to win the NBA Eastern Conference is – the Boston Celtics? I haven't thought that since "Who's The Boss" was still in prime-time. Here's my break-down of the only teams that matter in the East.
My head says to go with the Chicago Bulls, especially if Andres Nocioni can stay healthy and Luol Deng takes his play up a notch, which I think he will this season. But they've been my pick the last two years and they've let me down each time. It's time to switch it up.
Detroit is the safe pick. If you wanted to teach a child how to play basketball, you'd plop him or her down in front of the TV when the Pistons play. However, picking them is like casting Tony Danza in a sitcom and naming his character Tony. Go out on a limb for once, will ya? (Why does he always play a guy named Tony?)
Detroit is really going to miss Chris Webber though, and it's been a while since I said those words, too. Big men who can pass fit in perfectly with the Piston-way. With Big Ben having left two seasons past and now Webber gone, the Pistons' fourth best player is now Antonio McDyess, their former Sixth Man, and something about that doesn't seem right.
The Miami Heat have to at least be considered considering they're only two years removed from their title. They do have Dwyane Wade, whom one could argue is better than LeBron James(say what?!). They also still have the Big Guy, the Mack Shaq Daddy, Shaquille O'Neal, so something tells me they'll be hanging around. But it's a matter if both Wade – who played hurt in last year's playoffs – and Shaq – who played hurt for most of the year – are both healthy come May.
However, picking the Heat to have a longer run this year than "The Tony Danza Show" (1997) is a stretch. (I bet you didn't even know there was a "Tony Danza Show." It lasted a season. He played a sportswriter and single father raising two teenage daughters with the help of his attractive, young assistant. And yes, his name on the show was Tony.)
The Indiana Pacers? I have a feeling Danny Granger's gonna put up a Jermaine O'Neal-type season, circa 2001-2002 when Jermaine first burst onto the scene. Now, if Jermaine O'Neal can also have a Jermaine O'Neal-type season, at least the Pacers will win some games. But their division is too tough, too many good teams. It's exactly like Tony Danza's role in "Crash." Such a good movie with such a great cast, you forget he was even in the movie (playing a man named "Fred," no less).
The New Jersey Nets still have their Big Three, so they'll make some noise. Sean Williams will fit in quite nicely if he can keep his head on straight and maybe provide the shot-blocking presence Kenyon Martin used to fulfill when he was flying around for the Nets. As for Jason Kidd, he put up a Magic Johnson type of season last year (13.0 points, 8.4 rebounds, 9.7 assists), so to suggest he's lost it is crazy-talk. He's one of my favorite players of all time and should the Nets falter this season, I'd love to see him traded to a team in the West (back to Dallas?).
But picking the Nets to make the Finals is like picking Tony Danza to win an Oscar for his role in "She's Out of Control" (1989). (Okay, that one was a stretch … but I still love that movie. No one can pull of a single father raising a blooming, teenage daughter quite like TD.)
You have to love what the Toronto Raptors' organization has done, and that team plays great defense. It's too bad they had the No. 1 pick in a draft without a franchise player. They do, however, have a franchise player in Chris Bosh (and to think he was only the fourth best player in his draft). But if you were asked in 2004 what was most likely to happen in 2008: 1) The Toronto Raptors would be in the NBA Finals, or 2) Tony Danza would have his own (successful!) day-time TV Talk Show, which one would you have picked? I think you'd go with option No. 2. (And you'd be right. He's had his own show since the fall of 2004, I bet you didn't know that either).
The only other team to consider is the Cleveland LeBrons, but let's not kid ourselves. They had an unbelievable Colorado Rockies-like run to get to the Finals last season, but they were completely overmatched once they got there. It's safe to say they won't be back this year. However, if they do happen to make it again, I think LeBron will have wrestled the Best-Player-In-The-Game award from Mr. Tim Duncan.
So that brings us back to the Boston Celtics. I honestly cannot believe they landed Kevin Garnett. Wasn't this the same organization that just finished paying off Vin Baker's contract? Now they have KG. Six-foot thirteen (wink-wink), with a wingspan like he's 7-4 and the athleticism of a small forward. There's never been a player like him.
(Oh, and Ray Allen wasn't too shabby a pick-up either.) Garnett's such an intense player who feeds off the crowd, he's going to absolutely love playing in a sports crazy market like Boston. Nothing against Timberwolves fans, but a lot of them would rather be ice fishing than at a Timberwolves game, and there's a fine line between ice fishing and sitting outside and freezing your arse off.
Finally, let us not forget they still have Paul Pierce, who deserves a lot of respect for sticking with an organization that was stuck in neutral for years. It's tough to believe that this is his 10th season with the Cs, which is two years longer than Tony Danza's reign as the Boss of television.
And all of this hullabaloo about there not being enough shots for the Big Three is, well, it's a bunch of hullabaloo. Firstly, we're not talking about three players playing for their next contract; we're talking about three quality veterans who want nothing more than a championship. Secondly, KG has never been a big scorer; he's only scored more than 40 points in a game 3 times in his career (with a career high of 47 against ths Suns in 2005). It's also safe to say Ray Allen won't average 26 points a game this year like he did last year, but I'm sure he'll glady shave 6 points off his per-game average for an NBA Finals appearance.
The Cs are no slam dunk to make the Finals, though; they still need a back-up point guard. For all of Rajon Rondo's talent, for all of his ability to jump lanes for steals, he still has a long way to go defensively, especially defending the high pick-and-roll, save nothing for his lack of an outside shot. I have the feeling the Cs will pick up a point guard at the trading deadline. Ironically, the Gary Payton that Boston had in 2004-2005 would have been perfect on this year's squad. Of course, Lakers fans might have thought the same thing at the beginning of the 2003-2004 season.
Here's one more juicy nugget of info about the new Big Three in Boston before we part: Entering this season, Garnett has the most points scored among active players without having made an NBA Finals appearance (19,086). Ray Allen is No. 2 on the list (17,004), and Pierce is No. 4 (15,416).
(Stephon Marbury is No. 3 with 15,903, in case you were wondering. Incidentally, you could win a bar bet if you knew that Marbury is also No. 2 in assists per game among all active players. Yup, even more than Mr. Steve Nash, but not more than Kidd, who at 9.2 is the active leader.)
Who's the Boss in the East? Interestingly enough, it isn't Tony Danza. It's the Boston Celtics. Yowsa. I can't believe I just wrote that.
See you in my Western Conference Finals Preview: "Saved By The Bell edition."