The NFL off-season is winding down, and will soon give way to the NFL pre-season. Few noteworthy free agents remain unsigned, and all 30 teams will report to training camp before the end of July.

If history is any indication, it is almost certain not to happen. In the history of the Super Bowl, there has been only one rematch of the previous season's finalists, when Dallas and Buffalo met for Super Bowls XXVII and XXVIII. What does that mean? It means that statistically, there is only a 2.5% chance of a championship game rematch.

It is equally unlikely that the Seattle Seahawks can recover from their XL defeat to win the franchise's first Lombardi Trophy this season. That has also happened only once, and coincidentally, the Dallas Cowboys were also involved. Tom Landry's team rebounded from a heart-wrenching last-second defeat at the hands of the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl V to defeat Don Schula's Miami Dolphins in Super Bowl VI.

The reality -- both teams are good enough for return trips to the big game.

For the first time since 2000, don't expect a Super Bowl hangover from last year's runner-up. Even with the loss of All-Pro guard Steve Hutchinson, Seattle's balance makes their offense one of the best. They added quality free agent talent on both sides of the ball (WR Nate Burleson, LB Julian Peterson) and spent both of their first-day draft picks on impact defensive players. Playing in the NFC's weakest division, the Seahawks will have little trouble putting together another strong season and grabbing one of the conference's top two seeds.

The bad news for the Seahawks -- they play a first-place schedule and the rest of the NFC has gotten better. Even with tougher opponents and a bulls-eye on their backs, Seattle's schedule projects to 11 or 12 wins.

Last season, the Seahawks were the only team in the NFC with 12 or more victories. In 2006, clinching home-field promises to be a taller order. Preseason favorites Carolina and Dallas play second- and third-place schedules, and though both play in tougher divisions, Seattle has a more difficult AFC schedule.

The Chicago Bears, who quietly gave the Panthers a run for their money in the divisional round last year, would present a huge matchup problem for Seattle were they to meet in January, especially if the game was at Soldier Field. The difference between the number 1 and number 2 seeds may mean everything for the Seabags.

The offense is capable enough to have great success without Hutchinson. However, his departure can only hurt the NFL's number 3 rushing attack. Reigning MVP Shaun Alexander could produce in any offense, but most of his big runs the last few seasons were to the left side behind Hutchinson and tackle Walter Jones. While watching the Seahawks' 2005 NFL Yearbook program a few nights back, I was amazed that almost every highlight-reel run Alexander had last season was to the left side. Imagine what NFL defensive coordinators will find.

Consider this: In 2003, Alexander rushed for 1,435 yards and scored 14 touchdowns. The Seahawks went 10-6 and made the playoffs as a wild-card team before losing infamously to Green Bay in the "we want the ball, and we're going to score" game. In 2004, Alexander rushed for 1,696 yards and scored 16 TDs. Seattle went 9-7 and again lost in the wild card round. Last season, Alexander exploded for 1,880 yards and tied the league record for touchdowns in a season with 27. Seattle went 13-3, setting the franchise record for wins, and made their first Super Bowl appearance.

When a team relies so heavily on one back to carry the rushing load, the difference between 1,400 and 1,800 yards is great. Unfortunately for Seattle, Hutchinson may have been that difference. That being said, if the Seahawks can somehow get home-field advantage for a second consecutive season, a trip to Miami in February is not unlikely.

The challenges seem greater for the defending champs. The Pittsburgh Steelers lost their emotional leader and the heart of the team when Jerome Bettis retired. Lured away by other teams were free agents wide receiver Antwaan Randle-El, defensive end Kimo von Oelhoffen, and safety Chris Hope. But within the organization, each of these losses was expected. Pundits seem to forget that the Steelers' roster is purged in free agency on an almost-annual basis, and that, perhaps better than any other team in the league, they always seem to have capable replacements ready to step into new roles.

Remember Pro-Bowlers Carnell Lake, Jason Gildon, Levon Kirkland, Yancey Thigpen, and Chad Brown? All were Steelers' backups early in their careers, carefully groomed by the coaching staff before eventually stepping-in for starters lost to free agency. Each was also allowed to exit as a free agent when the front office felt they could be replaced by younger, less expensive players. Do not mistake the team's shrewdness for a lack of loyalty. The Steelers, unlike many teams, simply know when to say "when."

During the off-season, Pittsburgh signed safety Ryan Clark from the Redskins to keep Hope's old free safety spot warm until rookie Anthony Smith is ready to play. Defensive Coordinator Dick LeBeau and his staff feel that young DE Brett Keisel is ready to start and that playmaking wideout Cedrick Wilson, veteran Quincy Morgan and rookie wide receivers Santonio Holmes and Willie Reid will more than fill the void left by Randle El's departure. Expect Reid, the 2005 Orange Bowl MVP, to spend most of his rookie season returning kicks. Holmes figures to play a key role in the team's passing game. However, a tumultuous off-season may prevent him from playing a bigger part as a rookie. Still, both the secondary and receiving corps stand to improve from a year ago.

It is the unexpected which will be the Steelers' biggest obstacle in 2006. The off-season was an uncharacteristically problematic one off the field. All-Pro LB Joey Porter let it be known that he is unhappy with his current contract. Bill Cowher's coaching future is suddenly uncertain. During the off-season, he bought a "vacation" home in North Carolina and his daughter transferred to one of the area's high schools. The fact that the Rooneys have yet to get Cowher a contract extension (he has always been extended when two years remained on his current deal) has only added to the collective unease.

Rookie first-round draft choice Santonio Holmes hasn't been able to stay out of trouble with the law, and oh, by the way, the face of the franchise suffered severe head and facial injuries last month in a motorcycle accident that he was lucky to survive.

The good news? Holmes has one of the game's elite and hardest-working players, Hines Ward, to look up to at his position. When the season begins, Porter will shut up (at least, about his contract) and play. By all indications, Big Ben is already back to near-full strength, and will now be even more determined to succeed. The Steelers should reclaim the AFC North crown and, unlike last season, play at least one home playoff game.

The value of a player like The Bus can never really be replaced. On the field, expect a resurgent Duce Staley to actually put up better numbers in a similar role. Off the field, the leadership void will be felt. But slowly and surely, other players will step into leadership roles of their own. After all, the Steelers have shown they know how to groom replacements.

In Part II:

* No. 2: How will the NFC East race shake out?

* No. 3: Which non-playoff team from a year ago has the best chance to make a playoff run in 2006?