If I hadn’t seen it with my own eyes, I wouldn’t have thought it was possible, but there was no denying that when he stepped on the court for the finals of the Monte Carlo Masters this past Sunday to face Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer was most definitely nervous.

Not that you could blame him. Playing Nadal on the Spaniard’s favorite surface (he’s got the third longest winning streak on clay) when you’ve lost to him three times in four meetings would make anyone nervous. So no, it’s not the fact that Federer suffered nerves that is so amazing, but rather the fact that he let it hinder his game so completely.

In the first set against Nadal, he made more unforced errors in three games than he had in the entire first set of his semifinal against Fernando Gonzales. It’s no wonder that he lost the first set emphatically 6-2. He managed to level the match at one set a piece, but that was nothing more than a temporary illusion.

Nadal reimposed his supremacy by closing the third set 6-3 and taking a 3-0 lead in the fourth. That Federer was able to force a tiebreak is a testament more to his pride and natural talent than anything else. His body language from the very beginning suggested that Federer has serious doubts about his ability to beat Nadal.

The question is what happens now? Will this loss push Federer still further into doubt or will he take heart from an improved performance against his number one rival? The answer to that question will only arrive with time as the players continue their run up to the French Open.

The advantage is clearly with Nadal and not just because he now leads Federer by four victories to one. The fact is that in order to beat the Spaniard, Federer has to play his very best tennis and he is incapable of doing that on clay.

Before Federer fans go off half cocked, let me underline that this is completely relative. Federer at his worst, is still better than a great many players. He is strong on all surfaces but stronger on hard courts and grass than on clay.

To really get at the heart of the Nadal-Federer rivalry, one has to separate their confrontations according to surface. When they have faced each other on hard courts, Nadal has come out on top due to his incredible ability to stay focused.

Federer will always have slight ups and downs in a match, a moment or two where he loses concentration because everything is so easy. It’s not about arrogance or underestimating his opponents, but simply an innate belief in his own talent. He is better than all the others and he knows it.

Against Nadal, however, those distractions are fatal. On clay, the problem is only amplified by the fact that Federer cannot reproduce the tennis he is capable of playing on hard courts or on grass.

And let’s not forget to take Nadal’s own attributes into account. A fantastic forehand, tactical intelligence, above average mental fortitude and extraordinary physical presence.

Add to all that the advantage of playing left handed (Nadal is actually right handed in everyday life and this is one of the reasons that his backhand passing shots are so effective) and you can understand why most players are overwhelmed at the idea of playing him, especially on clay.

Nadal does not just pose a tactical problem to Federer, but a mental one as well. It’s obvious that when Nadal is on the other side of the net, the Swiss feels a pressure that is not there in his other matches.

The final in Monte Carlo was one of the few times that Federer has gone into a match as the outsider and instead of taking advantage and playing as if he had nothing to lose, he put pressure on himself and, to put it bluntly, he choked.

Federer says he wants to win Roland Garros. It is after all the only Grand Slam that he has yet to win, but with Nadal on the scene, the clock is ticking for the Swiss, no pun intended. Nadal is only 19 (he turns 20 on June 3rd) and will only get better as time goes on. If Federer wants to triumph in Paris, it is going to have to be soon.

Federer, unlike Pete Sampras, the player he is most compared to, has what it takes to win the French Open, with one string attached : not having to play Nadal. Federer’s best chance, perhaps his only chance, is hoping that someone else takes Nadal out before the final.

If comes down to a confrontation between the top two seeds as it did in Monte Carlo, over five sets, on a surface that he rules with the intensity of a conquistador, expect Nadal to triumph.