I must admit that I get a chuckle every time a TV commentator or a so-called "draft expert" (one particular one comes to mind) hype a college prospect. I know that the talking heads need to have something to talk about and, let’s face it, speculation is fun for fans. That said, it is getting somewhat ridiculous lately.

It seems as though interest in the National Football League draft is at an all time high. Need evidence? The 2005 draft on ESPN received the highest ratings ever of a draft. That means that millions upon millions of Americans watched Mel Kiper, Jr. and at least some of those people probably believed he knew what he was talking about. Not me, however. No sir.

I subscribe to the school of thought that says we don’t know about these college kids until they actually play in the NFL. Sometimes we don’t even know after one or two years if they will be able to cut it.

The trendy phrase right now in the 2006 NFL draft is to refer to the occasion as "The Reggie Bush Sweepstakes." The main players in this sweepstakes are Houston, San Francisco, Green Bay and New Orleans. According to the experts, the team that ends up with the No. 1 pick will take Bush and then live happily ever after with the next Gale Sayers. Give me a break.

I’m not saying that Bush isn’t a great player, he is. However, I would like to point out that everything he has done so far has been in college. The newest member of the Heisman fraternity has been a spectacular amateur player at the highest level, but he still hasn’t done anything in the pros.

In the past 20 years, there have been only two drafts in the three major sports (that’s right, I don’t count the NHL anymore) that have had absolute can’t miss No. 1 picks. The first was Shaquille O’Neal to Orlando in the 1992 NBA draft and the last was Peyton Manning to the NFL’s Indianapolis Colts in 1998.

Incredibly, there were even some people in NFL circles in ’98 that thought Ryan Leaf -- who went second overall to San Diego -- was the better prospect. Go figure.

Hey, do I have to pull the Tony Mandarich/Barry Sanders card? I will if you still don’t believe me that it’s nearly impossible to call anyone a "franchise pick" or a "can’t miss prospect."

Back in 1989, Dallas chose Troy Aikman with the first pick, which was a solid choice. Next, however, Green Bay decided to go with a now-infamous tackle from Michigan St., Mandarich, instead of Heisman Trophy tailback Sanders. The rest is history.

Need more examples? Okay, let’s just stick with No. 1 overall picks that didn’t quite live up to superstar expectations: Tim Couch (Cleveland, ’99), Courtney Brown (Cleveland, ’00), Steve Emtman (Indianapolis, ’92), Ki-Jana Carter (Cincinnati, ’95), Jeff George (Indianapolis, ’90) and David Carr (Houston, ‘02). Oh, and this list only covers the colossal busts of the past 20 years, it doesn’t even mention marginal players who went first overall like Russell Maryland or Dan Wilkinson.

So before all you football fans put Bush in the same league as O.J. Simpson (Buffalo, ’69) and Earl Campbell (Houston, ’78), remember that he could also be the next Jim Grabowski (Miami, ’66) or Tommy Mason (Minnesota, ’61).

The truth of the matter is that fellow running backs expected to declare for the ’06 draft, DeAngelo Williams or Laurence Maroney, could end up as better pros than Bush. I wouldn’t bet on it, but then again Blair Thomas looked really good at Penn. St., too. After all, Tom Brady -- one of the top three quarterbacks of all-time -- was a sixth round selection to New England in the 2000 draft. This means that every NFL team passed over Brady several times each.

With this knowledge, I ask you -- does anybody really know who will be a star in the NFL before they actually take the field?